Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.67 – 53.57

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

54 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.4 ±20.5

640Edison Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 100.2Event APEX 45.04Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3017Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 0.78Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX 12.85Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195 ±15.6

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -9.49Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7730uNReal

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 45.39Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6024R Factor

Season APEX 58Event APEX 17.67Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 640, 3017, 10452

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 640, 3017, 10452

Auto

19.0 28%

Teleop

49.0 72%

Endgame

-0.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 395, 7730, 6024

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 395, 7730, 6024

Auto

2.9 6%

Teleop

15.1 29%

Endgame

34.0 65%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.7pts

Blue projected score53.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.1
Score range: 29–84
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 68 vs event baseline 139.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.4Season APEX195

19Auto2.9

49Teleop15.1

-0.3Endgame34

133Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	23	0
endgame	10	3
foul	5	0
total	54	14

Result

Final score

54 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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