Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31 – 159.77

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214 ±20.5

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -4.6Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

11090Kronos

Provisional

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 21.99Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9509Cybears

Provisional

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 13.61Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.2 ±17.7

7730uNReal

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 23.87Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 121.98Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5421BirchBots

Provisional

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 13.92Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 395, 11090, 9509

/ 100 compat

Projected

31 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 395, 11090, 9509

Auto

15.7 59%

Teleop

15.6 59%

Endgame

-4.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7730, 2872, 5421

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7730, 2872, 5421

Auto

34.5 22%

Teleop

85.0 53%

Endgame

40.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31pts

Blue projected score159.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.8
Score range: 2–189
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214Season APEX338.2

15.7Auto34.5

15.6Teleop85

-4.9Endgame40.4

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	40
teleop	2	105
endgame	0	62
foul	5	5
total	20	212

Result

Final score

20 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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