Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.53 – 200.75

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.6 ±16.8

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 16.56Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4299BCS RoboSharks

Provisional

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 9.29Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 50.68Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.6 ±17.7

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 144.27Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 35.66Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1635TECHNOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 20.82Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 516, 4299, 10229

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 516, 4299, 10229

Auto

27.4 36%

Teleop

34.7 45%

Endgame

14.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2872, 4729, 1635

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2872, 4729, 1635

Auto

33.6 17%

Teleop

113.6 57%

Endgame

51.5 26%

Strengths

· 2872 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.5pts

Blue projected score200.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.2
Score range: 52–226
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.6Season APEX313.6

27.4Auto33.6

34.7Teleop113.6

14.9Endgame51.5

160Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	41
teleop	61	128
endgame	45	2
foul	15	0
total	150	171

Result

Final score

150 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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