Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.75 – 124.22

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.5 ±16.6

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 167.77Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5123Mechadogs

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 4.19Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3390ANATOLIAN EAGLEBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 4.79Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.1 ±19.3

5421BirchBots

Provisional

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX -3.9Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

743Technobots

Provisional

Season APEX 55Event APEX 32.3Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 95.82Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3015, 5123, 3390

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3015, 5123, 3390

Auto

42.3 23%

Teleop

92.1 49%

Endgame

52.0 28%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5421, 743, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5421, 743, 3419

Auto

10.7 9%

Teleop

71.7 58%

Endgame

40.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176.8pts

Blue projected score124.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.5
Score range: 99–202
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 139.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.5Season APEX302.1

42.3Auto10.7

92.1Teleop71.7

52Endgame40.2

121Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	25
teleop	79	35
endgame	63	19
foul	15	0
total	210	79

Result

Final score

210 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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