Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

4.53 – 88.44

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.9 ±20.5

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX -4.15Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10454UPC Raptors

Provisional

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 11.73Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7036The Beta Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX -3.05Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.5 ±17.7

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 49.96Rank 39Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11090Kronos

Provisional

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 38.4Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4571Rambots

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 0.08Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5806, 10454, 7036

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5806, 10454, 7036

Auto

8.8 100%

Teleop

-5.7 0%

Endgame

0.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5298, 11090, 4571

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5298, 11090, 4571

Auto

5.4 6%

Teleop

59.1 70%

Endgame

20.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score4.5pts

Blue projected score88.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.9
Score range: -20–113
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 141.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.9Season APEX200.5

8.8Auto5.4

-5.7Teleop59.1

0.8Endgame20.2

117Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	25	22
endgame	10	8
foul	5	0
total	56	51

Result

Final score

56 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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