Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.46 – 246.56

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.3 ±17.7

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 30.58Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 41.88Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1635TECHNOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 23Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±16.6

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 171.13Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -5.88Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2344The Saunders Droid Factory

Provisional

Season APEX 118.7Event APEX 81.31Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 516, 3204, 1635

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 516, 3204, 1635

Auto

24.4 28%

Teleop

28.1 32%

Endgame

34.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6985, 395, 2344

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6985, 395, 2344

Auto

40.1 16%

Teleop

152.7 61%

Endgame

57.8 23%

Strengths

· 6985 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.5pts

Blue projected score246.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -151.1
Score range: 70–272
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.3Season APEX385.5

24.4Auto40.1

28.1Teleop152.7

34.1Endgame57.8

87Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	56
teleop	20	116
endgame	25	24
foul	0	5
total	65	201

Result

Final score

65 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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