Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.21 – 142.99

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.4 ±14.5

9030Qarabagh MecHack

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 15.32Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6969Cyborgs6969

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 4.98Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 135.91Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.9 ±16.3

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 56.46Rank 8Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 99.47Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3017Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX -12.94Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9030, 6969, 6985

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9030, 6969, 6985

Auto

43.2 28%

Teleop

77.5 51%

Endgame

32.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2601, 10229, 3017

/ 100 compat

Projected

143 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2601, 10229, 3017

Auto

25.3 18%

Teleop

80.0 58%

Endgame

32.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.2pts

Blue projected score143pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.2
Score range: 114–185
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.4Season APEX409.9

43.2Auto25.3

77.5Teleop80

32Endgame32.2

15Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	19
teleop	138	60
endgame	80	7
foul	0	5
total	234	91

Result

Final score

234 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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