Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.22 – 0

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.6 ±11.6

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 67.61Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 47.66Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 45.95Rank 8Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 84.1 ±18.2

4571Rambots

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -7Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX 5.02Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7036The Beta Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX -8.36Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3419, 9642, 2601

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3419, 9642, 2601

Auto

8.7 6%

Teleop

95.0 61%

Endgame

51.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4571, 10452, 7036

/ 100 compat

Projected

-10.3 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4571, 10452, 7036

Auto

-2.1 28%

Teleop

9.3 0%

Endgame

-14.7 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.2pts

Blue projected score-10.3pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.2
Score range: -26–187
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.6Season APEX84.1

8.7Auto-2.1

95Teleop9.3

51.5Endgame-14.7

73Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	13
teleop	149	11
endgame	60	12
foul	5	0
total	247	36

Result

Final score

247 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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