Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

6.35 – 55.97

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.8 ±18.2

5123Mechadogs

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -7.62Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4299BCS RoboSharks

Provisional

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 6.61Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9030Qarabagh MecHack

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 7.36Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.7 ±20

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 35.08Rank 39Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4383The P-TECH Fly-Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 4.51Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3390ANATOLIAN EAGLEBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 16.38Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5123, 4299, 9030

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5123, 4299, 9030

Auto

3.2 26%

Teleop

4.5 36%

Endgame

4.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5298, 4383, 3390

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5298, 4383, 3390

Auto

13.1 24%

Teleop

19.1 35%

Endgame

22.9 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score6.4pts

Blue projected score56pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.6
Score range: -20–82
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 143.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.8Season APEX194.7

3.2Auto13.1

4.5Teleop19.1

4.8Endgame22.9

147Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	15
teleop	17	36
endgame	10	31
foul	0	0
total	51	82

Result

Final score

51 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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