Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.91 – 106.32

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.2 ±12.7

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 79.94Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 160.29Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 72.68Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.8 ±20.5

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 62.01Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9509Cybears

Provisional

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 8.83Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10454UPC Raptors

Provisional

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 35.48Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 334, 6985, 333

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 334, 6985, 333

Auto

56.8 19%

Teleop

153.4 50%

Endgame

96.3 31%

Strengths

· 6985 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4729, 9509, 10454

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4729, 9509, 10454

Auto

25.0 24%

Teleop

49.1 46%

Endgame

31.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score312.9pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.6
Score range: 81–338
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 141.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.2Season APEX160.8

56.8Auto25

153.4Teleop49.1

96.3Endgame31.5

50Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	20
teleop	232	2
endgame	50	1
foul	15	5
total	369	28

Result

Final score

369 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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