Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.65 – 115.8

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.3 ±17.7

1635TECHNOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 9.34Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

369High Voltage Robotics

Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 100.32Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 23.99Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.1 ±17.7

6969Cyborgs6969

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 56.39Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9295Harlem Rails

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 37.56Rank 31Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 21.85Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1635, 369, 395

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1635, 369, 395

Auto

25.4 19%

Teleop

63.9 48%

Endgame

42.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6969, 9295, 6648

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6969, 9295, 6648

Auto

14.0 12%

Teleop

39.6 35%

Endgame

60.3 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.7pts

Blue projected score115.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.9
Score range: 90–160
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.3Season APEX190.1

25.4Auto14

63.9Teleop39.6

42.5Endgame60.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	70	0
endgame	22	0
foul	0	20
total	112	37

Result

Final score

112 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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