Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.26 – 188.44

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.3 ±11.9

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 57.28Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 190.03Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4571Rambots

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -11.05Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.4 ±18.1

6593HyperDrive Robotics

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 86.24Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

354G-House Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 115.1Event APEX 80.3Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6873The Generals

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 21.9Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3419, 3015, 4571

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3419, 3015, 4571

Auto

34.6 15%

Teleop

114.8 49%

Endgame

84.2 36%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6593, 354, 6873

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6593, 354, 6873

Auto

33.3 17%

Teleop

124.5 65%

Endgame

33.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score236.3pts

Blue projected score188.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.8
Score range: 163–261
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 140.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.3Season APEX294.4

34.6Auto33.3

114.8Teleop124.5

84.2Endgame33.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	157	114
endgame	71	24
foul	0	40
total	244	199

Result

Final score

244 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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