Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.24 – 83

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 38.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.3 ±15.6

7668GatorBots

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX -7.9Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 63.63Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6024R Factor

Season APEX 58Event APEX 42.51Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.2 ±20.5

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 72.99Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

743Technobots

Provisional

Season APEX 55Event APEX 11.73Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11090Kronos

Provisional

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX -1.72Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7668, 3004, 6024

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7668, 3004, 6024

Auto

14.8 16%

Teleop

51.8 55%

Endgame

28.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3204, 743, 11090

/ 100 compat

Projected

83 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3204, 743, 11090

Auto

31.1 44%

Teleop

34.2 49%

Endgame

4.9 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.2pts

Blue projected score83pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.2
Score range: 57–124
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 144.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.3Season APEX235.2

14.8Auto31.1

51.8Teleop34.2

28.1Endgame4.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	14
teleop	9	48
endgame	7	31
foul	5	5
total	37	98

Result

Final score

37 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 38.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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