Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

73.67 – 32.27

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.9 ±17.3

4299BCS RoboSharks

Provisional

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX -2.63Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 49.41Rank 8Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 26.89Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.4 ±20

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 38.77Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6590SaviTech

Provisional

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX -0.3Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3017Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX -6.2Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4299, 2601, 5806

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4299, 2601, 5806

Auto

7.7 13%

Teleop

26.2 43%

Endgame

26.6 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 516, 6590, 3017

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 516, 6590, 3017

Auto

11.2 40%

Teleop

21.9 79%

Endgame

-5.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73.7pts

Blue projected score32.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.4
Score range: 5–101
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.9Season APEX194.4

7.7Auto11.2

26.2Teleop21.9

26.6Endgame-5.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	16
teleop	44	21
endgame	34	18
foul	0	0
total	87	55

Result

Final score

87 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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