Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.11 – 47.19

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

63 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.4 ±17.5

2344The Saunders Droid Factory

Provisional

Season APEX 118.7Event APEX 59.97Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX 5.29Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7668GatorBots

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX -2.15Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±15.6

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 48.65Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4571Rambots

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -8.73Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

64018-bit RAMs

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 7.27Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2344, 10452, 7668

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2344, 10452, 7668

Auto

19.2 32%

Teleop

32.1 53%

Endgame

9.4 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3004, 4571, 6401

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3004, 4571, 6401

Auto

17.0 37%

Teleop

16.2 35%

Endgame

13.2 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.1pts

Blue projected score47.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.9
Score range: 18–92
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.4Season APEX188.6

19.2Auto17

32.1Teleop16.2

9.4Endgame13.2

83Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	9
teleop	35	21
endgame	13	1
foul	0	0
total	63	31

Result

Final score

63 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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