Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26 – 110.96

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.6 ±17.3

4383The P-TECH Fly-Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -26.02Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 41.81Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX 10.21Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±17.2

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 16.93Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 63.88Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10454UPC Raptors

Provisional

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 30.15Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4383, 10229, 10452

/ 100 compat

Projected

26 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4383, 10229, 10452

Auto

13.6 58%

Teleop

15.5 66%

Endgame

-5.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8739, 333, 10454

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8739, 333, 10454

Auto

22.5 23%

Teleop

49.3 51%

Endgame

24.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score26pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85
Score range: 0–137
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.6Season APEX213.5

13.6Auto22.5

15.5Teleop49.3

-5.5Endgame24.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	36
teleop	51	65
endgame	12	56
foul	5	5
total	106	162

Result

Final score

106 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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