Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.47 – 8.23

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±12.8

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 61.34Rank 39Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 48.81Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 2.32Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.3 ±20.5

743Technobots

Provisional

Season APEX 55Event APEX -0.25Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9509Cybears

Provisional

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX -21.83Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9636Space Junk

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 30.31Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5298, 3419, 516

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5298, 3419, 516

Auto

18.6 17%

Teleop

49.5 46%

Endgame

38.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 743, 9509, 9636

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 743, 9509, 9636

Auto

17.9 100%

Teleop

-6.9 0%

Endgame

-10.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.5pts

Blue projected score8.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.2
Score range: -18–138
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.5Season APEX164.3

18.6Auto17.9

49.5Teleop-6.9

38.4Endgame-10

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	19
teleop	91	26
endgame	46	19
foul	0	0
total	161	64

Result

Final score

161 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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