Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186 – 118.95

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

528 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 211.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.4 ±12.4

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 22.53Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 102.82Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 60.65Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218 ±15.6

5123Mechadogs

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -2.08Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 53.18Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7730uNReal

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 67.85Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3204, 694, 6985

/ 100 compat

Projected

186 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3204, 694, 6985

Auto

25.8 15%

Teleop

96.8 55%

Endgame

53.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5123, 5806, 7730

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5123, 5806, 7730

Auto

19.7 19%

Teleop

54.4 53%

Endgame

29.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score186pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.1
Score range: 96–209
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 566 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.4Season APEX218

25.8Auto19.7

96.8Teleop54.4

53.7Endgame29.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	14
teleop	291	21
endgame	120	3
foul	5	0
total	528	38

Result

Final score

528 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 211.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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