Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.26 – 33.85

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 94.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.7 ±19.7

7036The Beta Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 17.18Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 49.59Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3053VB Stingers

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX 38.49Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345 ±16

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 13.14Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2344The Saunders Droid Factory

Provisional

Season APEX 118.7Event APEX 20.77Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX -0.06Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7036, 9642, 3053

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7036, 9642, 3053

Auto

13.5 15%

Teleop

48.1 54%

Endgame

27.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6648, 2344, 10229

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6648, 2344, 10229

Auto

9.0 29%

Teleop

22.5 72%

Endgame

-0.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.3pts

Blue projected score33.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.4
Score range: 11–128
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.7Season APEX345

13.5Auto9

48.1Teleop22.5

27.7Endgame-0.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	36
teleop	25	86
endgame	16	48
foul	0	0
total	52	170

Result

Final score

52 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 94.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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