Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.13 – 73.72

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 49.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239 ±22.5

4383The P-TECH Fly-Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 10.29Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5421BirchBots

Provisional

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 60.57Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

640Edison Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 100.2Event APEX 29.27Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152 ±15.6

4571Rambots

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 8.86Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7668GatorBots

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 18Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 46.86Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4383, 5421, 640

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4383, 5421, 640

Auto

18.5 20%

Teleop

57.5 62%

Endgame

17.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4571, 7668, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4571, 7668, 4729

Auto

13.2 18%

Teleop

37.7 52%

Endgame

21.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score73.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.4
Score range: 49–125
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 75 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239Season APEX152

18.5Auto13.2

57.5Teleop37.7

17.3Endgame21.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	5
teleop	12	7
endgame	10	16
foul	0	10
total	37	38

Result

Final score

37 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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