Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.62 – 209.92

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 7.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.2 ±20.5

7036The Beta Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 8.7Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 11.17Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4383The P-TECH Fly-Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 14.75Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.5 ±19

640Edison Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 100.2Event APEX 42.59Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 101.78Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

354G-House Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 115.1Event APEX 65.55Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7036, 3204, 4383

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.6 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7036, 3204, 4383

Auto

14.5 48%

Teleop

6.4 21%

Endgame

9.5 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 640, 334, 354

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 640, 334, 354

Auto

20.2 10%

Teleop

129.7 63%

Endgame

56.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.49 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score34.6pts

Blue projected score209.9pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -175.3
Score range: 6–239
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 160.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.2Season APEX396.5

14.5Auto20.2

6.4Teleop129.7

9.5Endgame56.7

142Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	28
teleop	5	128
endgame	4	40
foul	20	0
total	36	196

Result

Final score

36 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 7.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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