Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
239.96 – 204.08
61%39%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
217 – 253
Prediction missed · off by 35.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.5 ±11.6
Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 47.38Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 86.25Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 106.33Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.9 ±13.3
Season APEX 179Event APEX 36.07Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 69.53Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 98.48Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 334, 6911, 7840
73
/ 100 compatProjected
240 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 334, 6911, 7840
Auto
56.8 25%
Teleop
125.9 54%
Endgame
49.1 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7551, 358, 3158
62
/ 100 compatProjected
204.1 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 7551, 358, 3158
Auto
30.7 15%
Teleop
113.7 57%
Endgame
56.8 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.46
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score240pts
Blue projected score204.1pts
Red win probability61%
Event bonus sample160alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 60%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 35.9
- Score range
- 169–275
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
535.5Season APEX448.9
56.8Auto30.7
125.9Teleop113.7
49.1Endgame56.8
36Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 68 | 55 |
| teleop | 107 | 115 |
| endgame | 42 | 83 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 217 | 253 |
Result
Final score
217 – 253
Prediction missed · off by 35.9 pts
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.