Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
202.94 – 160.49
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
122 – 0
Prediction correct · off by 120.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.1 ±12.2
Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 71.59Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 70.01Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 87Event APEX 61.34Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.7 ±14.5
Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 97.32Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 45.3Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 89Event APEX 17.87Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1880, 10262, 2875
60
/ 100 compatProjected
202.9 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 1880, 10262, 2875
Auto
24.6 13%
Teleop
108.8 56%
Endgame
60.7 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3950, 516, 2869
57
/ 100 compatProjected
160.5 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 3950, 516, 2869
Auto
37.1 25%
Teleop
82.0 55%
Endgame
31.0 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.46
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score202.9pts
Blue projected score160.5pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample160alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 65%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 42.4
- Score range
- 124–239
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
357.1Season APEX265.7
24.6Auto37.1
108.8Teleop82
60.7Endgame31
0Consistency53
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 14 |
| teleop | 61 | 107 |
| endgame | 15 | 11 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 122 | 0 |
Result
Final score
122 – 0
Prediction correct · off by 120.7 pts
Match videos
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