Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.03 – 184.28

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

339 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.7 ±12.8

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 88.43Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 53.06Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 135.54Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.9 ±13.3

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX 29.18Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 60.43Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 94.67Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4122, 2265, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

277 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4122, 2265, 8011

Auto

66.1 25%

Teleop

156.7 59%

Endgame

42.9 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7551, 358, 3158

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7551, 358, 3158

Auto

31.4 17%

Teleop

98.7 54%

Endgame

52.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score277pts

Blue projected score184.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.7
Score range: 148–313
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 197.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.7Season APEX448.9

66.1Auto31.4

156.7Teleop98.7

42.9Endgame52.6

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	28
teleop	191	159
endgame	64	66
foul	0	0
total	339	253

Result

Final score

339 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Match videos

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