Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.36 – 171.55

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532 ±11.7

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 150.1Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 36.9Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 152.36Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.7 ±14.5

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 99.6Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 50.04Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX 21.91Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8267, 3193, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8267, 3193, 8393

Auto

60.5 18%

Teleop

178.6 54%

Endgame

90.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3950, 516, 2869

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3950, 516, 2869

Auto

41.5 26%

Teleop

89.8 56%

Endgame

28.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score339.4pts

Blue projected score171.5pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.8
Score range: 137–374
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 194.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532Season APEX265.7

60.5Auto41.5

178.6Teleop89.8

90.4Endgame28.4

20Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	26
teleop	135	66
endgame	50	40
foul	25	5
total	274	137

Result

Final score

274 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Match videos

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