Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
352.46 – 313.84
62%38%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
451 – 321
Prediction correct · off by 52.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.4 ±10.5
Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 187.45Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 6Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 159.01Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532 ±11.7
Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 144.51Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 88Event APEX 28.83Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 140.5Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 694, 6348, 4027
81
/ 100 compatProjected
352.5 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 694, 6348, 4027
Auto
66.5 19%
Teleop
203.1 58%
Endgame
79.5 23%
Strengths
- · 694 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8267, 3193, 8393
84
/ 100 compatProjected
313.8 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 8267, 3193, 8393
Auto
69.5 23%
Teleop
151.2 51%
Endgame
78.0 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.35
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score352.5pts
Blue projected score313.8pts
Red win probability62%
Event bonus sample160alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 38.6
- Score range
- 277–389
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
588.4Season APEX532
66.5Auto69.5
203.1Teleop151.2
79.5Endgame78
0Consistency3
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 120 | 87 |
| teleop | 167 | 165 |
| endgame | 149 | 69 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 451 | 321 |
Result
Final score
451 – 321
Prediction correct · off by 52.9 pts
Match videos
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