Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

282.82 – 323.13

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 97 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.7 ±12.8

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 91.41Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 134.77Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 56.64Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532 ±11.7

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 148.13Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 31.52Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 143.48Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4122, 8011, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4122, 8011, 2265

Auto

69.5 25%

Teleop

157.7 58%

Endgame

46.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8267, 3193, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8267, 3193, 8393

Auto

68.0 22%

Teleop

158.6 51%

Endgame

83.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score282.8pts

Blue projected score323.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.3
Score range: 246–360
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 203.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.7Season APEX532

69.5Auto68

157.7Teleop158.6

46.4Endgame83

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	79
teleop	40	104
endgame	18	47
foul	0	25
total	157	255

Result

Final score

157 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 97 pts

Match videos

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