Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
486.43 – 379.87
79%21%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
527 – 201
Prediction correct · off by 109.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 720.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 44.01Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 213.17Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 256Event APEX 229.25Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588.4 ±10.5
Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 196.77Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 16.7Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 166.4Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1155, 1796, 1156
81
/ 100 compatProjected
486.4 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 1155, 1796, 1156
Auto
93.7 20%
Teleop
278.0 58%
Endgame
108.8 23%
Strengths
- · 1156 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 694, 6348, 4027
81
/ 100 compatProjected
379.9 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 694, 6348, 4027
Auto
73.4 20%
Teleop
220.2 59%
Endgame
82.3 22%
Strengths
- · 694 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.06
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score486.4pts
Blue projected score379.9pts
Red win probability79%
Event bonus sample160alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 9%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 106.6
- Score range
- 344–522
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
720.1Season APEX588.4
93.7Auto73.4
278Teleop220.2
108.8Endgame82.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 99 | 31 |
| teleop | 334 | 108 |
| endgame | 94 | 62 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 527 | 201 |
Result
Final score
527 – 201
Prediction correct · off by 109.7 pts
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.