Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.02 – 0

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560.9 ±11.1

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 24.57Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX -5.07Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 150.52Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.7 ±18.8

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 11.52Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -16.41Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10045Casque Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -5.07Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9642, 3646, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

170 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9642, 3646, 1796

Auto

20.2 12%

Teleop

107.8 64%

Endgame

41.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7636, 516, 10045

/ 100 compat

Projected

-10 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7636, 516, 10045

Auto

0.8 0%

Teleop

-2.8 33%

Endgame

-6.4 76%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170pts

Blue projected score-10pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170
Score range: -34–204
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 188.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560.9Season APEX165.7

20.2Auto0.8

107.8Teleop-2.8

41Endgame-6.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	12
teleop	170	24
endgame	20	10
foul	0	5
total	230	51

Result

Final score

230 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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