Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.13 – 88.86

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 149 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.4 ±11.7

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 65.71Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 27.71Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 19.71Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.3 ±13.9

2875CyberHawks

Season APEX 87Event APEX 14.86Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 54.29Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 19.71Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1880, 2265, 1155

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1880, 2265, 1155

Auto

16.9 15%

Teleop

67.7 61%

Endgame

27.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2875, 3950, 8739

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2875, 3950, 8739

Auto

17.4 20%

Teleop

51.7 59%

Endgame

18.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.1pts

Blue projected score88.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 57–145
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 179.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.4Season APEX244.3

16.9Auto17.4

67.7Teleop51.7

27.1Endgame18.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	32
teleop	151	138
endgame	32	87
foul	15	0
total	243	257

Result

Final score

243 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 149 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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