Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.32 – 183.45

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 115.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.8 ±15.6

10390GOOGIRL

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX -Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 29.71Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX -Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.3 ±15.6

3760Robo Raccoons

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX -Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 8Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 145.14Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10390, 4122, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10390, 4122, 8011

Auto

25.0 28%

Teleop

50.9 56%

Endgame

14.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3760, 3193, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3760, 3193, 8393

Auto

25.7 14%

Teleop

108.6 60%

Endgame

47.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.3pts

Blue projected score183.4pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.1
Score range: 57–216
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 181.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.8Season APEX356.3

6.9Auto16.6

20.6Teleop93.4

2.3Endgame41.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	27
teleop	111	27
endgame	57	24
foul	25	20
total	236	98

Result

Final score

236 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 115.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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