Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.32 – 189.36

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.2 ±12.8

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 56.56Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 55.78Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 90.98Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.8 ±15.1

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 18.37Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 153.49Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6880Universal Serial Brawlers (USB)

Provisional

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 17.5Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 516, 2265, 4122

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 516, 2265, 4122

Auto

44.4 23%

Teleop

113.9 58%

Endgame

38.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3646, 8267, 6880

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3646, 8267, 6880

Auto

47.4 25%

Teleop

102.8 55%

Endgame

38.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.3pts

Blue projected score189.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14
Score range: 154–238
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 192.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.2Season APEX425.8

44.4Auto47.4

113.9Teleop102.8

38.4Endgame38.1

20Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	9
teleop	82	79
endgame	33	7
foul	25	30
total	163	125

Result

Final score

163 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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