Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.68 – 391.47

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 118.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.5 ±15.6

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 60.85Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10390GOOGIRL

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 9.2Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 11.63Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 566.3 ±14.3

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 217.52Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

335Skillz Tech Gear Botz

Provisional

Season APEX 20.9Event APEX -5.13Rank 37Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 179.08Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6911, 10390, 3193

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6911, 10390, 3193

Auto

7.6 10%

Teleop

21.1 29%

Endgame

44.0 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1796, 335, 4027

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.5 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1796, 335, 4027

Auto

78.7 21%

Teleop

218.9 57%

Endgame

84.5 22%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.7pts

Blue projected score391.5pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -309.8
Score range: 47–426
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 193.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.5Season APEX566.3

7.6Auto78.7

21.1Teleop218.9

44Endgame84.5

30Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	104
teleop	112	134
endgame	65	28
foul	0	0
total	194	266

Result

Final score

194 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 118.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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