Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.81 – 233.68

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.4 ±16

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 89.65Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 17.37Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 55.79Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.8 ±13.3

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 94.9Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 10.3Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 128.48Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3950, 7636, 334

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3950, 7636, 334

Auto

60.6 38%

Teleop

67.1 42%

Endgame

33.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3158, 8739, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3158, 8739, 8011

Auto

53.0 23%

Teleop

122.5 53%

Endgame

54.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score162.8pts

Blue projected score233.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.9
Score range: 129–268
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 190.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.4Season APEX359.8

60.6Auto53

67.1Teleop122.5

33.4Endgame54.5

43Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	25
teleop	67	149
endgame	8	86
foul	5	0
total	141	260

Result

Final score

141 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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