Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

250.35 – 400.49

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

296 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.1 ±15.3

10045Casque Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -4.28Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 202.17Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 52.46Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.3 ±10.5

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 64.15Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 245.27Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 91.07Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10045, 694, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10045, 694, 2265

Auto

43.9 18%

Teleop

155.8 65%

Endgame

41.6 17%

Strengths

· 694 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6911, 1156, 7840

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.5 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6911, 1156, 7840

Auto

73.8 19%

Teleop

223.8 56%

Endgame

99.5 25%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score250.4pts

Blue projected score400.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.1
Score range: 216–434
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 188.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.1Season APEX610.3

43.9Auto73.8

155.8Teleop223.8

41.6Endgame99.5

43Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	84
teleop	185	222
endgame	74	68
foul	0	15
total	296	389

Result

Final score

296 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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