Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.4 – 103.11

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

443 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.3 ±11.1

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 65.28Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 239.85Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 104.27Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.5 ±15.1

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 18.82Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11313tROBOmakEr

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX -0.86Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 85.15Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10262, 1156, 3158

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.4 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10262, 1156, 3158

Auto

68.6 17%

Teleop

237.1 59%

Endgame

97.1 24%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9642, 11313, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9642, 11313, 6911

Auto

21.4 22%

Teleop

60.7 62%

Endgame

15.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score409.4pts

Blue projected score103.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 306.3
Score range: 65–447
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 213.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.3Season APEX317.5

68.6Auto21.4

237.1Teleop60.7

97.1Endgame15.5

11Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	12
teleop	294	62
endgame	99	7
foul	5	5
total	443	86

Result

Final score

443 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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