Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.83 – 179.46

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±17

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 18.78Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9030Qarabagh MecHack

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 35.41Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 9.64Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.6 ±13.5

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 60.23Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6024R Factor

Season APEX 58Event APEX -23.07Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 142.3Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7636, 9030, 8739

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7636, 9030, 8739

Auto

24.4 36%

Teleop

22.5 33%

Endgame

21.5 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 358, 6024, 8267

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 358, 6024, 8267

Auto

26.0 15%

Teleop

107.3 64%

Endgame

35.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.8pts

Blue projected score179.5pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.6
Score range: 30–213
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 188.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX399.6

24.4Auto26

22.5Teleop107.3

21.5Endgame35.1

5Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	63
teleop	22	145
endgame	21	63
foul	0	0
total	51	271

Result

Final score

51 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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