Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.6 – 213.16

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.1 ±13.9

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 9.39Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 54.58Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 126.63Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.4 ±12.2

2875CyberHawks

Season APEX 87Event APEX 55.77Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 103.22Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 54.17Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3193, 516, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3193, 516, 8011

Auto

43.1 24%

Teleop

96.7 53%

Endgame

42.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2875, 3158, 1155

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2875, 3158, 1155

Auto

31.3 15%

Teleop

118.5 56%

Endgame

61.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.6pts

Blue projected score213.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.6
Score range: 157–247
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 188.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.1Season APEX361.4

43.1Auto31.3

96.7Teleop118.5

42.9Endgame61.7

45Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	39
teleop	115	102
endgame	89	35
foul	15	5
total	234	181

Result

Final score

234 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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