Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.44 – 144.87

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.3 ±14.8

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 50.87Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 215.55Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10390GOOGIRL

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 13.02Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.4 ±12.7

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 56.19Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 63.22Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 25.46Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 334, 1796, 10390

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 334, 1796, 10390

Auto

44.6 17%

Teleop

147.1 55%

Endgame

78.1 29%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2265, 10262, 9642

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2265, 10262, 9642

Auto

32.8 24%

Teleop

99.2 72%

Endgame

4.9 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score279.4pts

Blue projected score144.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 134.6
Score range: 111–313
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 188.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

588.3Season APEX286.4

44.6Auto32.8

147.1Teleop99.2

78.1Endgame4.9

17Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	5
teleop	135	74
endgame	82	37
foul	0	15
total	303	131

Result

Final score

303 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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