Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.01 – 227.46

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

247 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.5 ±11.7

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 9.18Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 13.48Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 247.35Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.3 ±12.9

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 83.54Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 143.09Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX 0.83Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3646, 8739, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

270 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3646, 8739, 1156

Auto

50.6 18%

Teleop

165.3 60%

Endgame

60.2 22%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7840, 8393, 2869

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7840, 8393, 2869

Auto

49.6 22%

Teleop

130.9 59%

Endgame

43.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score270pts

Blue projected score227.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.5
Score range: 193–304
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 186.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.5Season APEX476.3

50.6Auto49.6

165.3Teleop130.9

60.2Endgame43.1

33Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	63
teleop	114	161
endgame	83	57
foul	0	15
total	247	296

Result

Final score

247 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 45.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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