Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.53 – 127.4

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±16

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 2.47Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 25.41Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10045Casque Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -5.35Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.1 ±13.5

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX 37.22Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 50.46Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9030Qarabagh MecHack

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 39.72Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3193, 9642, 10045

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3193, 9642, 10045

Auto

-6.6 0%

Teleop

-0.6 0%

Endgame

13.4 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7551, 1155, 9030

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7551, 1155, 9030

Auto

14.3 11%

Teleop

69.9 53%

Endgame

47.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score22.5pts

Blue projected score127.4pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.9
Score range: -11–161
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 186.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.6Season APEX407.1

-6.6Auto14.3

-0.6Teleop69.9

13.4Endgame47.4

81Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	13
teleop	20	82
endgame	13	22
foul	0	15
total	43	132

Result

Final score

43 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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