Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.26 – 257.59

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.7 ±16

10045Casque Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 4.54Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2875CyberHawks

Season APEX 87Event APEX 56.6Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 11.12Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.9 ±11

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 45.55Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 144.24Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 67.8Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10045, 2875, 3646

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10045, 2875, 3646

Auto

13.0 21%

Teleop

32.3 53%

Endgame

15.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 334, 8267, 1880

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 334, 8267, 1880

Auto

66.1 27%

Teleop

123.6 50%

Endgame

58.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score257.6pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -185.3
Score range: 34–296
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 213.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.7Season APEX578.9

13Auto66.1

32.3Teleop123.6

15.4Endgame58

57Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	31
teleop	21	124
endgame	20	75
foul	0	0
total	52	230

Result

Final score

52 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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