Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.8 – 149.93

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 100.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.5 ±16

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 94.71Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 66.61Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10045Casque Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 29.48Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.6 ±18.8

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 81.51Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3760Robo Raccoons

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 48.47Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10390GOOGIRL

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 19.95Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3158, 358, 10045

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3158, 358, 10045

Auto

12.5 7%

Teleop

99.1 57%

Endgame

62.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2265, 3760, 10390

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2265, 3760, 10390

Auto

33.7 29%

Teleop

48.2 42%

Endgame

34.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.8pts

Blue projected score149.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.9
Score range: 117–224
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 184.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.5Season APEX208.6

12.5Auto33.7

99.1Teleop48.2

62Endgame34.2

3Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	22
teleop	39	23
endgame	19	7
foul	0	0
total	87	52

Result

Final score

87 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 100.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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