Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

293.3 – 306.41

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

404 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.2 ±12.4

4571Rambots

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 28.91Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 111.89Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 152.5Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.6 ±14.3

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 47.21Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 235.85Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 23.35Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4571, 8393, 4027

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4571, 8393, 4027

Auto

64.5 22%

Teleop

162.7 57%

Endgame

60.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1155, 1156, 7636

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1155, 1156, 7636

Auto

42.3 14%

Teleop

192.4 63%

Endgame

72.3 24%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score293.3pts

Blue projected score306.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.1
Score range: 261–338
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 708 vs event baseline 178.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.2Season APEX426.6

64.5Auto42.3

162.7Teleop192.4

60.7Endgame72.3

127Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	55
teleop	234	155
endgame	83	94
foul	0	0
total	404	304

Result

Final score

404 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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