Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.11 – 143.46

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.8 ±16.2

7272Envirobots

Provisional

Season APEX 46Event APEX -9.11Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX -25.83Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 162.05Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.3 ±15.1

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 63.16Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6880Universal Serial Brawlers (USB)

Provisional

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 62.16Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 18.14Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7272, 2869, 8267

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7272, 2869, 8267

Auto

16.4 13%

Teleop

64.8 53%

Endgame

41.4 34%

Strengths

· 8267 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6911, 6880, 334

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6911, 6880, 334

Auto

35.5 23%

Teleop

106.5 70%

Endgame

10.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.1pts

Blue projected score143.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.4
Score range: 95–175
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 178.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.8Season APEX444.3

16.4Auto35.5

64.8Teleop106.5

41.4Endgame10.7

137Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	57
teleop	80	49
endgame	5	31
foul	0	5
total	149	142

Result

Final score

149 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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