Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.14 – 293.42

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

508 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 100.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.8 ±11.9

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 140.72Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 224.23Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9030Qarabagh MecHack

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 46.19Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.2 ±13

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX 10.01Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 196.66Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 86.75Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8393, 1796, 9030

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8393, 1796, 9030

Auto

87.7 22%

Teleop

231.0 57%

Endgame

83.5 21%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2869, 694, 3950

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2869, 694, 3950

Auto

59.0 19%

Teleop

188.7 62%

Endgame

56.4 19%

Strengths

· 694 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score411.1pts

Blue projected score293.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.7
Score range: 255–449
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 698 vs event baseline 213.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668.8Season APEX510.2

87.7Auto59

231Teleop188.7

83.5Endgame56.4

9Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	38
teleop	308	110
endgame	137	37
foul	5	5
total	508	190

Result

Final score

508 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 100.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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