Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.36 – 185.87

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

544 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 839 ±9.3

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 155.61Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 196.17Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 47.58Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±14.5

6024R Factor

Season APEX 58Event APEX -14.9Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 129.94Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX 70.83Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 694, 1796, 1880

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.4 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 694, 1796, 1880

Auto

56.6 14%

Teleop

223.8 57%

Endgame

112.5 29%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6024, 8011, 7551

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6024, 8011, 7551

Auto

44.8 24%

Teleop

120.8 65%

Endgame

19.4 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score399.4pts

Blue projected score185.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 213.5
Score range: 155–430
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 656 vs event baseline 173.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

839Season APEX384.3

56.6Auto44.8

223.8Teleop120.8

112.5Endgame19.4

49Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	10
teleop	346	47
endgame	124	40
foul	5	15
total	544	112

Result

Final score

544 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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