Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.43 – 74.09

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.9 ±17

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 8.09Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11313tROBOmakEr

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 15.86Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9030Qarabagh MecHack

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 75.48Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 107.6 ±20.8

335Skillz Tech Gear Botz

Provisional

Season APEX 20.9Event APEX -4.98Rank 37Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10045Casque Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 28.26Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3760Robo Raccoons

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 50.81Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 516, 11313, 9030

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 516, 11313, 9030

Auto

29.7 32%

Teleop

35.9 39%

Endgame

26.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 335, 10045, 3760

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 335, 10045, 3760

Auto

21.4 40%

Teleop

5.7 11%

Endgame

26.8 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.4pts

Blue projected score74.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.3
Score range: 42–131
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 177.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.9Season APEX107.6

29.7Auto21.4

35.9Teleop5.7

26.1Endgame26.8

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	18	20
endgame	9	2
foul	0	45
total	45	79

Result

Final score

45 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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