Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.9 – 53.57

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.1 ±12.7

6348PrepaTec - HORUS

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX -18.93Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 35.71Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 62.12Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.3 ±13.3

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX -13.5Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 78.52Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX -11.45Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6348, 8739, 10262

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6348, 8739, 10262

Auto

16.9 21%

Teleop

64.4 80%

Endgame

-0.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3646, 2265, 3193

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3646, 2265, 3193

Auto

21.8 39%

Teleop

46.5 84%

Endgame

-13.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score53.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.3
Score range: 22–111
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 180.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.1Season APEX307.3

16.9Auto21.8

64.4Teleop46.5

-0.7Endgame-13.1

38Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	16
teleop	76	47
endgame	26	32
foul	0	5
total	120	100

Result

Final score

120 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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