Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.18 – 166.66

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 150.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324 ±13.9

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 82.54Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 33.6Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6024R Factor

Season APEX 58Event APEX -45.96Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.8 ±12.2

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -28.69Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 44.84Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 150.51Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3950, 7840, 6024

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3950, 7840, 6024

Auto

41.9 60%

Teleop

26.4 38%

Endgame

1.4 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 516, 10262, 8267

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 516, 10262, 8267

Auto

13.0 8%

Teleop

107.4 63%

Endgame

48.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.2pts

Blue projected score166.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.5
Score range: 40–197
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 538 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324Season APEX400.8

41.9Auto13

26.4Teleop107.4

1.4Endgame48.9

124Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	57
teleop	161	179
endgame	19	51
foul	15	30
total	221	317

Result

Final score

221 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 150.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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